Goldwind Technology (002202): Tenders and orders volume hit a record high and wait for the turning point of wind turbine gross margin

Goldwind Technology (002202): Tenders and orders volume hit a record high and wait for the turning point of wind turbine gross margin
Event: Goldwind Technology released the first quarter report of 2019, the report merged, and the company achieved revenue of 53.96 trillion US dollars, an annual increase of 39.80%, net profit attributable to mothers2.29 ppm, 10-year average4.64%, net profit after deducting non-return to mother1.88 ppm, with a ten-year average of 16.55%, EPS is 0.06 yuan / share. In the first quarter, the bidding volume reached a record high, the bidding price stabilized, and the gross profit margin forecast for wind turbines bottomed out in the second half of the year. In a gradual report, we have been committed to changing the end of the deleveraging phase, financing costs have fallen, and environmental protection margins have improved.As well as factors such as the previous expansion of power price adjustments, wind power will usher in large-scale rush installations in 2019-2020.The number of domestic open tenders in the first quarter of 2019 reached 14.9GW, a year-on-year increase of 101%, set a historical record of the highest bidding volume in a single season, further verifying the high prosperity of the wind power industry.As for the bidding price, since the fourth quarter of 2018, the average bid price of various departments has stabilized and rebounded, and the price has remained above 3400 yuan / kw, of which 2.The average bid price of 0MW-class units in March 2019 was 3,410 yuan / kw, which was an increase of 6 from the low price in September.7%, 2.The average bid price for a 5MW-class unit in March 2019 was 3,464 yuan / kw, an increase of 4 from the August low.0%, based on the competitive advantage and development prospects of the wind turbine industry, and our expected wind turbine tender prices will help maintain stability.Taking into account the impact of low order wind turbine orders in 18 years, we expect the gross profit margin of wind turbines to bottom out in Q3.As of the end of March 2019, the company had 19 external orders in hand.23GW, an annual increase of 14.6%, continuing to set a record in history, of which 15 contracts have been reached.2GW, an increase of 45 per year.9%.As the industry recovery accelerates and the gross profit margin of wind turbines bottoms out, the company’s excess orders in hand will ensure that the wind turbine business improves significantly in 2020. The utilization hours have decreased slightly, but the continuous optimization of the installed structure: shortened by changes in wind resources and the blackout caused by winter heating in some northern areas. The standard operating hours of the company’s self-operated wind farms in the first quarter of 2019 were 537 hours.The monthly downgrade was 53 hours, but the company’s self-operated wind region continued to optimize its regional structure.As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company’s cumulative grid-connected self-operated wind farm equity installed capacity reached 4,722MW, of which 34% were in the Northwest region, a decrease of at least 7 percentage points, 33% in North China, and 22% in East and South China.Previously increased by 5 averages.At present, the company’s domestic equity under construction capacity is 1552MW, of which more than 60% are in regions with better consumption such as South and East China. The “two seas” strategy continued to advance and overseas business expanded smoothly: As of the end of the first quarter of 2019, the company had international orders in hand at 861.8MW, an increase of 205 around the end of 2018.2MW, projects in the United States, Argentina, South Africa, Kenya, Thailand, Pakistan, Turkey and many other countries.In essence, the company’s overseas under construction and development projects have a total capacity of 1,528 MW, which lays the foundation for the company’s continued expansion of overseas business.In terms of offshore wind power, in 2018, the company’s independently developed GW154 / 6700 large-capacity offshore wind turbine successfully completed hoisting, achieving intelligent operation and maintenance and lean delivery capabilities of offshore projects, marking the industrialization of Goldwind’s large-capacity offshore wind power equipment.Expected pace; in terms of orders, as of the first quarter of 2019, offshore wind power has an order capacity of 774.6MW, an increase of 32 around the end of 2018.8 MW. Investment suggestion: We expect the company’s net profit attributable to mothers to be 32 in 2019-2021.9.6 billion, 48.1.5 billion, 59.08,000 yuan, the growth rate was 2 respectively.45%, 46.10%, 22.70%; EPS are 0.8/1.17/1.44 yuan.Maintain the company’s buy-A investment 杭州夜网论坛 rating and target price of 15.21 yuan. Risk warning: domestic wind power installed capacity exceeds expectations; abandoned wind power cut improvement is lower than expected; overseas market operating risks, etc.