SF Holdings (002352): 1 month express business volume +40 for half a year.45% reiterate “Buy” rating

SF Holdings (002352): 1 month express business volume +40 for half a year.45% reiterate “Buy” rating
Event overview: On the evening of February 24, 2020, the company released the 2019 performance report: After preliminary calculations by the company, the company expects to achieve operating income of 1121 in 2019.9 trillion, +23 a year.37%; Net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is expected to be gradually realized in 2019.970,000 yuan, +27 for ten years.24%; Expected net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after unforeseen profit or loss in 2019.08 thousand yuan, ten years +20.78%.Performance was slightly lower than expected.  On the same day, the company released the operation briefing of the express service industry in January 2020: In January 2020, the company realized the operating income of express logistics business 111.5 trillion, ten years +10.64%; achieve express business volume5.6.6 billion votes, +40 in ten years.45%; the monthly average single ticket income in January was 19.7 yuan, at least -21.23%; operating income from supply chain business4.7.8 billion, +455 per year.81%.  In Q4, the net profit attributable to mothers was approximately 14.86 ‰, at least -2.75%, single quarter performance growth rate is lower than the overall growth rate.Since the company launched special preferential products in May 2019, the company’s express delivery business volume has grown rapidly, and in 2019 it will achieve an express delivery business volume of 48.400 million votes, +25 for ten years.1%, of which Q4 achieved a courier business volume of 15 in a single quarter.900 million votes, + 49% a year.The company’s Q4 single quarter realized operating income of about 334.23 ppm, +30 a year.69%, lower than the growth rate of express delivery business, mainly due to the decline in the average single ticket revenue of the express delivery business.Due to the relatively high single ticket prices of special products, the company’s single ticket revenue of the express delivery business also decreased accordingly. In 2018, the average revenue of the company’s express ticket sales was 23.18 yuan, according to our calculations, the company’s average revenue from express delivery in 2019 is about 21.9 yuan, -5 years.41%, of which Q4 single quarter express ticket sales revenue is about 19.77 yuan, ten years -16.32%.  We judge that the company’s courier business volume has increased rapidly after the launch of special special products, but the single ticket price of special special products has relatively reduced the average ticket revenue; meanwhile, special special products have been adopted to express business, The rapid increase of new products such as supply chain business, the company needs to supplement the corresponding incremental resources 武汉夜生活网 should be part of the incremental business, resulting in cost increases, two factors may cause the company Q4.  January express delivery volume +40 per year.45%, single ticket income +2.07%, with the rapid growth of business volume, the scale effect will be prominent.The company achieved express delivery business volume in January 5.6.6 billion votes, +40 in ten years.45%, single ticket income 19.7 yuan, at least -21.twenty three%.The express delivery business volume growth is still strong. Although the single ticket revenue has been shortened, it has stabilized short-term from the previous quarter.The company’s average single ticket revenue in November / December 2019 and January 2020 were 19 respectively.69/19.3/19.7 yuan, -4 respectively.00% /-1.98% / + 2.07%, the company’s average single ticket income has stabilized in the short 南京桑拿论坛 term.  The outbreak of the epidemic is to some extent conducive to the further formation of consumers’ online consumption habits. At the same time, the outbreak has also put a test on the production organization of express delivery companies.We believe that the company’s direct business model has advantages in organizing production and is expected to further increase the market share of e-commerce parts. With the rapid growth of the company’s express delivery business scale, the marginal contribution to performance will become more and more obvious.  Investment suggestion: The e-commerce dividend will continue, and the company’s future performance will continue to grow. The company’s profit forecast will be revised and the “buy” rating will be renewed.We believe that the epidemic is conducive to the further formation of consumers’ online consumption habits. The gradual e-commerce industry will continue to maintain a high growth rate. At the same time, the current express delivery business is still concentrated in the eastern region, the central region, and the western region.There is room for breakthrough development.As the leader of the express delivery industry, the company’s business continues to expand. At the same time, technology empowerment will help the company to improve its operating efficiency. It is expected that the company’s future performance will continue to grow and it is optimistic about the company for a long time.  Based on the company’s performance report and the company’s recent average single ticket revenue situation, we believe that the conversion of the company’s special preferential products and the rapid growth of the supply chain and other businesses, the average single ticket revenue will decrease, and costs will increase.Accordingly, we adjusted our profit forecast accordingly.The operating income for 2019-2021 will be adjusted from the original 110 billion US dollars / 132.4 billion US dollars / 156.1 billion US dollars to one 121.2 billion / 137.4 billion US dollars / 168 billion US dollars; the net profit attributable to mothers in 2019-2021 will be 60.8 ppm / 71.6 ppm / 84.The 6 trillion is adjusted to 58 ppm / 66.5 ppm / 78.5 ppm; 2019-2021 corresponds to the original EPS of 1.38 yuan / 1.62 yuan / 1.92 yuan was adjusted to 1.31 yuan / 1.51 yuan / 1.78 yuan, according to 45 shares on February 24, 2020.The closing price of 96 yuan / share, the corresponding PE is 35/30/26 times, repeating the “Buy” rating.  Risks suggest that the macroeconomic downside may exceed expectations; industry competition is intensifying.