Microcore Bio (688321): Rookie focused on innovative R & D of small molecule drugs
Investment Highlights Companies are listed on the first criteria.
The science and technology board is the first pharmaceutical company to meet and drive innovation and R & D.
On June 5, 2019, Microchip became the first batch of companies in the science and technology board and the only biomedical company among the first batch of companies.
Since its establishment, the company has adhered to the unmet clinical needs in China as a whole, persisted in innovative research and development, and after more than ten years of accumulation, it has formed multiple rich product echelons. At present, all the company’s research and listed products have replaced new molecular entities.The company’s innovative genes are excellent.
Cedaramide: indications and market space continue to expand, and sales are expected to reach 2 billion.
Cidabenzamide is the world’s first subtype selective HDAC inhibitor. Its approved indication is second-line treatment for trans-T-cell lymphoma. It is currently the only drug approved for second-line treatment of this indication in China. It is expected that sales of this indication will reachReach 5.
Indication development: 1) Late hormone antagonists reached: Phase III clinical trials have been completed. It is expected to be approved in the second half of 2019, and the sales of this indication will reach 5 as expected.
800 million; 2) Non-small cell lung cancer: first-line combination therapy has entered the stage II / III clinical stage, and sales of this indication are expected to reach 7.
600 million; 3) Diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: It is about to enter clinical stage III, and sales of this indication are expected to reach 1.
4) Other combined medications: Cedaramine has a unique mechanism of action and may be combined with multiple drugs.
For example, overseas studies have shown that the combined use of cidabenzine and PD-1 is feasible, and the company and CindaBio have realized cooperation with PD-1 to further expand the market space of cidabenzamide.
Siglitazone sodium: a new generation of insulin sensitizer, sales are expected to reach 1 billion US dollars initially.
Siglitastat sodium is the world’s first PPAR full agonist to complete a phase III clinical trial. The test results show that it is not inferior to sitagliptin and is expected to be approved for marketing in China by 2020.
Traditional insulin sensitizers can clearly target insulin resistance, except for supplementation. Siglitazone sodium is a new generation of insulin sensitizers, which can moderately and balancedly activate the three PPAR receptor subtypes, which can overcome the inconsistencies of traditional insulin sensitizersDisadvantages, better efficacy and safety. Considering the huge domestic market for diabetes medications, the prospects of Siglitastat primary market are promising.
Based on the genomics technology platform, the therapeutic field and product pipeline are constantly enriched.
Through genomics technology, the company’s R & D pipeline has been continuously enriched. In addition to sitabine and ciglitazone sodium, the company also has a number of research varieties such as Sioroni and CS12192. The therapeutic field involves tumors, diabetes, metabolic diseases, and itself.Immunity and other disease areas with high growth prospects lay the foundation for the company’s future high growth.
Profit forecast and estimation.
It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 2019-2021 will be 39.95 million yuan, 60.37 million yuan and 88.38 million yuan, with a compound growth rate of 48.
With reference to the risk-adjusted DCF and P / S estimates, the company’s estimated range is 71?
US $ 8.8 billion, assuming the company’s total share capital after the issue is 4.
100 million shares, corresponding to a target price of 17.
Risk warnings 1) There is potential uncertainty in the research and development of new products, and there is a risk of future research and development failure; 2) The effect of market promotion effects on the sales of new products interacts with the risk that the volume of products may be less than expected in the future; 3) Some indications have already beenThere is potential competition in researching varieties, and there may be a risk of intensified market competition in the future; 4) The actual future revenue and performance of the company is affected by objective factors, and there may be a risk that the related sales forecast value of this report will deviate from future actual sales; 5) The risk 深圳spa会所 that capitalization of research and development expenditure may affect the stability of the company’s performance.